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| Naji, M. |
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| Motta, Antonella |
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| Aletan, Dirar |
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| Mohamed, Tarek |
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| Ertürk, Emre |
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| Taccardi, Nicola |
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| Kononenko, Denys |
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| Petrov, R. H. | Madrid |
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| Alshaaer, Mazen | Brussels |
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| Bih, L. |
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| Casati, R. |
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| Muller, Hermance |
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| Kočí, Jan | Prague |
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| Šuljagić, Marija |
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| Kalteremidou, Kalliopi-Artemi | Brussels |
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| Azam, Siraj |
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| Ospanova, Alyiya |
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| Blanpain, Bart |
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| Ali, M. A. |
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| Popa, V. |
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| Rančić, M. |
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| Ollier, Nadège |
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| Azevedo, Nuno Monteiro |
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| Landes, Michael |
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| Rignanese, Gian-Marco |
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Shah, Maunank
in Cooperation with on an Cooperation-Score of 37%
Topics
Publications (2/2 displayed)
- 2022Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Citiescitations
- 2020Multicenter Study of the Accuracy of the BD MAX Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis Assay for Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex and Mutations Associated With Resistance to Rifampin and Isoniazidcitations
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article
Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities
Abstract
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0–50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0–40% reduction), HIV testing (0–50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0–30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among “optimistic” simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among “pessimistic” simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1–21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020–2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.</jats:p></jats:sec>