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| Azevedo, Nuno Monteiro |
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Evans, Rhett
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article
A manufacturing cost estimation method with uncertainty analysis and its application to perovskite on glass photovoltaic modules
Abstract
Manufacturing cost analysis is becoming an increasingly important toolin the photovoltaics industry to identify research areas that needattention and enable progress towards cost reduction targets. Wedescribe a method to estimate manufacturing cost that is suitable foruse during an early stage of technology development, delivering both themanufacturing cost estimate as well as an uncertainty analysis thatquickly highlights the opportunities for greatest cost improvement. Weapply the technique to three process sequences for the large‐scaleproduction of organic‐inorganic hybrid perovskite photovoltaic modules. Aprocess sequence that combines two demonstrated perovskite modulesequences is estimated to cost $107/m<sup>2</sup> (uncertainty range $87 to 140/m<sup>2</sup>), comparable with commercial crystalline silicon and cadmium telluride technologies (on a US $/m<sup>2</sup>basis). A levelized cost of electricity calculation shows that thisperovskite technology would be competitive in 2015 with incumbentphotovoltaic technologies if a module power conversion efficiency of 18%and lifetime of 20 years can be achieved. Further analysis shows thateven if the cost of the active layers and rear electrode were reduced tozero, a module power conversion efficiency of 18% and lifetime of20 years would be required to meet the 2020 SunShot levelized cost ofelectricity targets.